研究 退税和家庭支出

Taxes are one of life’s few certainties.  以前的纳税季节通常可以作为家庭预测每年可能的退税或付款的可靠指南, and families adjust their saving and spending accordingly. 但对很多家庭来说, 由于《澳博体育app》(tax Cuts and Jobs Act)颁布的变化的影响，2019年的税收季节带来了不确定性.  According to the Internal Revenue Service, there was a 15.8% decrease in total tax refunds in 2019, the f国税局t tax season under the revised tax law. In 2018, the average refund was $2,135, compared to $1,949 in 2019, a 23.减少2%¹. Most of this change is attributed to the new law, which made significant changes to tax brackets, 标准扣除, and credits for families with children. 税务专家指出，2019年退税较低是由于家庭全年收入较高, yielding a lower refund or in some cases even a tax payment, according to the General Accounting Office².

Tax time constitutes a major annual financial event, which shapes families’ patterns of spending and saving throughout the year.  澳博官方网站app研究所(澳博官方网站app 研究所)在家庭财务状况的背景下研究了税收时间事件, 包括纳税或退款的影响，以及收到退款与自费医疗支出之间的联系.  在我们的报道中 风化挥发性2.0: A 月ly Stress Test to Guide Savings, 我们发现平均而言, families experience large income swings in almost five months out of a year, 即2月, 3月, 4月, 和12月. The spikes in the beginning of the year are likely due to tax refunds.

Figure 1: An illustrative example of income spikes, 浸s, and typical months.

In Tax Time: How Families Manage Tax Refunds and Payments, we examined the impact of tax time on families for the years 2015 through 2017, prior to the enactment of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act changes. 在研究的这些年里, 纳税的家庭, 只有8%的样本, typically had sufficient funds in their checking accounts to cover these payments. For almost all families who made payments, the payment had no lasting impact on their flows or balances. 这些家庭没有削减开支或增加劳动收入来支付这笔款项. 而不是, 在付款前的三周内，他们将现金转入支票账户. 即使对于那些在付款前几周似乎没有足够现金支付付款的家庭也是如此.

The vast majority of families in the U.S. 收到 a tax refund, 78 percent of our sample. 对29%的家庭来说, 退税到达的那天是一年中现金流最高的一天, 平均退款3美元,602, or equivalent to six weeks’ worth of take home pay. 退税到达的那一天, families spend roughly $180 more than typical, 增长119%. They also set aside a significant amount to savings. Six months after receiving a refund, the average family’s spending levels had settled to a new steady-state, almost 7 percent higher than the pre-refund steady state. 即便如此，退税六个月后，家庭的支票账户余额仍比基准高出11%.

Given the large increase in expenditures when the tax refunds arrives, we studied what people spent their tax refund on. 我们发现，在等待退税到来的时候，家庭推迟了消费，积累了信用卡债务. 平均, 退税后第一周内，大约五分之一的支出反应是家庭支付账单——主要是过去消费的账单, including credit card and 医疗保健 bills. 因此, 部分退税, which is the repayment of an interest-free loan to the government, is used to pay down interest-bearing credit card debt.  在收到退款后的一周内，耐用品的支出会翻倍，从通常的一周25美元增加到退款后的50美元.  Families also more than double their cash withdrawals, extracting roughly $200 more in cash than usual.  低收入家庭和现金余额较低的家庭尤其有可能在退税前后选择耐用品支出的时间, and to carry higher revolving credit card debt until they 收到 it.

Figure 2: 支出 on durable goods, 信用卡付款, 收到退税后，现金提现的增幅最大，而退税对现金流影响较大的家庭在收到退税后，支出和储蓄的增幅更大.

对很多家庭来说, the tax refund lasts far beyond tax season, fueling spending and saving for more than half the year. 这引发了一个问题，即家庭是否拥有将退税纳入财务规划所需的现金管理工具和信息.

我们还发现，在我们的报告中，退税是医疗保健自付支出的重要驱动因素 Deferred Care: How Tax Refunds Enable 医疗保健 支出. 在收到退税后的一周内，医疗保健支出的总体水平比100天前的典型一周高出60%. In the week after receiving a tax refund, out-of-pocket 医疗保健 spending on debit cards increased by 83 percent, and electronic payments increased by 56 percent. There was no offsetting change to credit card spending, 这表明退税提供的流动性推动了消费行为的变化.

Figure 3: Out-of-pocket 医疗保健 spending spikes when a tax refund payment is 收到d

我们发现现金流动态不仅驱动家庭支付医疗费用，也驱动家庭实际支付医疗费用 收到 医疗保健. 在退税后的一周内，自付医疗支出的增长中，有62%是亲自支付医疗服务费用. 在服务点支付的款项很可能是在提供服务时支付的. 在这种情况下, 消费者亲自花费的额外费用将用于识别延迟的医疗保健服务，而这些服务本可以更早获得, if their refund payment had come earlier.

Experts have posited that if consumers had more choice in their 医疗保健, they would be able to make more cost-effective choices; however, our research underscores the important role of cash flow in 医疗保健 consumption. Cash flow constraints might prevent seeking high-cost care in the short term, 即使从长远来看，这对病人和整个医疗系统都更好.

家庭如何管理家庭收入和支出的波动性以及金融的不确定性是澳博官方网站app研究所的一个关键研究领域，也是一个日益重要的创新和政策讨论领域. Now that we’re entering the second tax season with the Tax Cuts and Job Act, 家庭是否保留了相同的预扣税，以便获得更高的薪水和更少的退款, or change the withholdings to maximize the tax return? 在新的税收环境下，家庭如何管理他们的支出、储蓄和医疗保健? We look forward to continued research and analysis in this area, 当我们试图应用我们的颗粒数据镜头，以提供家庭收入和支出的独特视角.